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If things were normal, by now, Uttar Pradesh would have been abuzz with intense political activities in the run-up to the 2022 assembly elections, which will likely be held in February-March.
Instead, like many other states, Uttar Pradesh has been ravaged by the second wave. And while the state government’s narrative has been focused on how well it has managed the second wave – to be fair, the numbers do indicate this – anecdotal reports from one of India’s most backward regions do suggest that testing is inadequate in rural areas, and not all deaths are being correctly attributed to Covid.
That narrative apart, all is largely quiet on the political front.
As Rashtriya Lok Dal leader Jayant Chaudhary says, “With so much misery all around, one doesn’t know if campaigning in any form would be appropriate even after the pandemic subsides.” Chaudhary himself lost his father, Ajit Singh, to complications arising from Covid on May 6.
In 2017, the assembly elections were held in seven phases between January 17 and March 8. The elections were announced on January 4 and counting took place on March 11. Yogi Adityanath, the current chief minister, took the oath of office on March 19.
Experts believe India may well be hit by a third wave of the pandemic in the latter half of the year, adding to the anxiety of citizens and pressure on the government. It is clear that the state will enter the battlefield in a disturbed atmosphere and all political parties are well aware of that.
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While the first wave was more city-centric, the second wave has struck the vast rural areas of India’s most populous state — the lack of medical infrastructure, including medicines, has only added to the misery of people as they struggle for space to cremate their near and dear. As many as 299 of the 403 assembly seats in the state are in primarily rural constituencies.
Pandemic changes discourse
The deaths, by all reports, have united castes and communities.
Communal passions, especially in the western part of the state, triggered by the Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013 have cooled, although they have not disappeared completely.
Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) MP from Amroha, Danish Ali, says: “The farmers’ movement first diluted the communal animosity and now the pandemic has regrouped communities. There is a change in the air; people who earlier refused to listen to a word against (PM Narendra) Modi or Yogi are not reacting (to criticism) now. But the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) have the machinery to correct course.”
His reference is to the six-month long farmer protest against farm bills passed in September that has unified farmers across states and communities.
On the face of it, in a state where identity has always mattered, caste and communal issues appear to have taken a backseat — Covid-19 has eclipsed issues such as the construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya, the movement in legal cases in Kashi and Mathura for the liberation of places associated with Shiva and Krishna, and the so-called “love jihad”.
Author and political analyst Badri Narain agrees: “There is a shift in the public narrative with politics of medicalisation (one’s survival) overtaking the politics of caste and religious identity. Now public health will become the main discourse and not construction of malls or highways. The yardstick of development of the state, too, will change as people have experienced pain and agony.”
The ruling party had a glimpse of the public mood in the recent three-tier panchayat polls, in which the Opposition, which was completely decimated in 2017, held its political space. Though the panchayat polls are not contested on party symbols, all political parties were in the fray, openly supporting candidates.
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Of the 3,051 zila panchayat seats, the Samajwadi Party won over 1,000 while BJP ended close with over 800 seats.
Is the party worried? BJP state chief Swatantra Deo Singh while addressing the working committee meeting that followed put up a brave front and said: “Media is projecting panchayat polls as semi finals to 2022. They should not forget that the party has won all elections ( referring to by- polls, council and Rajya Sabha elections) since 2014.”
Nonetheless, the party has geared up the organisational machinery while senior leaders led by Sunil Bansal are carrying out a detailed review.
Party spokesman Naveen Srivastava said, “We are reaching out to the people, connecting with them through our government’s much appreciated ‘ test, trace and treat’ programme. The chief minister himself is touring the state gearing up the official machinery.”
Samajwadi Party state spokesperson and former minister Rajendra Chaudhary said: “What would happen with this political tourism now? The CM’s political tourism will not help despite the fudging of data. Despite his tours, the BJP can’t conceal Covid and black fungus deaths due to lack of oxygen, beds, medicines. The daily tours won’t help BJP in covering up the dead bodies that floated in rivers. Panchayat polls have indicated how villagers, farmers, labourers are angry,”
Brand Yogi on test
Brand Modi helped the BJP sweep the 2017 polls, capturing 312 of the 403 seats. Yogi Adityanath, the mahant of Gorakhnath Peeth and five-time MP, was one of the star campaigners of the BJP.
But after taking over as CM, he has sought to build his own brand – one built around Hindutva, aided by his status as a monk, and no-nonsense administration. The party has also sought to project him as an important national leader. Yogi is the only BJP chief minister to have been deployed across the country for campaigning.
As an incumbent, Yogi will have to carry the weight of the polls on his shoulders and the pandemic has only made the task heavier. Dozens of BJP MLAs, MPs and union ministers have shot off letters to Yogi highlighting the mismanagement of Covid in the state. For instance, on May 8, union minister Santosh Gangawar wrote a letter to the chief minister complaining about Covid mismanagement in his home town Bareilly. He wrote, “I have received complaints that patients going to government hospitals are not being admitted as the hospital is asking them for a referral letter from the district hospital. The patient keeps running around from one place to another and in the process oxygen level decreases. Please ensure this does not happen.”
Also Read | Covid vaccination: Centre enables on-site registration for 18-44 age group
But the CM has a strong network and an efficient party machinery, and faces a fragmented Opposition. Amid widespread criticism over his management of Covid, he hit the road, visiting districts and villages worst affected by the pandemic. He also enjoys the confidence of the central leadership and has the unwavering support of the RSS.
Mritunjay Kumar in chief ministers office opined, “It’s purely his hard work. Since the outbreak of the pandemic, he has not missed even one meeting of the Team 11, formed to monitor Covid management in the state, not even after he tested positive. Immediately after recovering from corona, he started a tour of the state completing all the 18 divisions of the state tomorrow. The cases fell by 234,000 in 23 days.”
As Badri Narain puts it, “The party would certainly like to project him as the savior of many lives.” However SP president Akhilesh Yadav is of the view that people won’t spare the government for the precious lives lost. “False propaganda and data won’t help now,” he said.
The BJP’s challenge
The farmer’s agitation has revived the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and the Jats are likely to rally around Jayant Chaudhary who has been at the forefront of their movement. His father’s death has also created a groundswell of sympathy for him. The Bhartiya Kisan Union, which had become redundant over the years, has received a fresh lease of life.
And even in its strongholds of Varanasi and Gorakhpur in east UP, the government may have to deal with the migrants, who have been forced to return to large cities in the absence of viable job opportunities.
Public memory is short but it is likely the Owill hark on deaths and the floating bodies in the Ganga.
Central UP has been the Yadav stronghold. The SP suffered losses there in 2017 for various reasons – including an intra-family dispute, and a backlash against the Yadav domination. However, since then, Akhilesh Yadav has strengthened his hold on the party and his recent silent tour of the state to activate his cadre may have helped. As such, 2022 will be a do-or-die battle for the party and its cadre.
The Bahujan Samaj Party under Mayawati remains largely inactive. The party is now seen as a friend of the BJP. While Dalits, mainly Jatavs, remain her backbone, she runs the risk of losing support from the Muslim community.
The Congress under Priyanka Gandhi has been making some sincere moves to raise public issues from Hathras to Sonbhadra, but the party has to activate the cadre to win some seats. Professor Yogeshwar Tiwari from Prayagraj said, “The Congress should be more constructive and less critical. They should come up with a road map than sporadic actions.”
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