Republic of Mauritius- Mauritius to face negative growth of 6.8% in best-case scenario, says Finance Minister

The Minister was replying to
a Private Notice Question on the economic impact of the lockdown from March
2020 to-date on the Mauritian economy.  Thus,
a noticeable downturn is to be expected and it is on the basis of which we have
established, at national level, more realistic scenarios than those predicted
by international instances, he pointed out.

Speaking about estimates for
Mauritius, the Minister stated that there will be a downturn at the level of
the country’s GDP ranging from 7% to 11% for 2020, and, as the lockdown and the
global sanitary crisis persist, it is expected that the country will record an economic
downturn of more than 10%.  In terms of
unemployment, if nothing is done, Mauritius could see its number of the unemployed
increase by 150% for a total of 100 000 active non-employed workers, that is,
17.5% of the active population, he highlighted. 
This would represent an increase of around 60 000 of unemployed persons across
Mauritius, he said.

Commenting the economic
impact on different sectors on 2020, the Minister noted that the estimated positive
growths for the agricultural sector will be between 1% and 1.5%, and for ICT,
between 2 and 3% with drops in several sectors. The construction sector could
nevertheless experience positive growth of 3% to 4%. According to him, a positive
growth rate for the finance sector is expected to be 2% in the optimistic
scenario, and will be less 7% in the pessimist scenario.  No growth is estimated in the professional
and administrative sectors.

Government is closely monitoring
the situation with regard to the impact of the pandemic on the GDP and on sectorial
and employment growth rates, Dr Padayachy pointed out.  The estimates will be adjusted by taking into
consideration the current situation in which the country finds itself, he
indicated. Government, he recalled, has already in a proactive manner
implemented several measures to sustain key sectors of the economy and will
continue to maintain its recovery strategy with regards to protecting
employment.  He further reassured that the
relaunching of the economy and investment will be at the fore of the 2020/21 Budget.

Moreover, the Minister
highlighted that the economic impact of restrictions linked to fighting the
Covid-19 pandemic is in constant evolution and is not final.  At the global level, the latest forecasts of
the IMF, relies on a strong downturn of global growth in 2020 at the rate of 3%
and this in the best of cases.  More than
150 countries will face a negative economic growth. 

For him, in the face of the
global lockdown, the risk of a sustainable recession is very much real.  In this prospect, the global GDP might
undergo a violent downturn way beyond the expected 6% forecasted by the IMF in
its worse scenario, he said.  One thing
is certain, the world economy will not come back on track anytime soon and at any rate not before 2024, he
added.

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Minister’s Office, Level 6, New Government Centre, Port Louis, Mauritius.
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