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The post IATA Expects 4 Billion Air Travellers In 2024 appeared first on TD (Travel Daily Media) Travel Daily.
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), in 2024, there will be a total of 4.0 billion passengers flying, which is more than pre-COVID-19 levels (103 per cent of the 2019 total).
With the evolution of various travel restrictions, some market expectations for the near-term recovery have changed slightly. It is important to note that IATA’s long-term forecast remains unchanged from its previous update in November, before the emergence of the Omicron variant.
“The Omicron variant did not change the trajectory for the recovery in passenger numbers from COVID-19. People want to travel. And when travel restrictions are lifted, they return to the skies. There is still a long way to go to reach a normal situation. Still, the forecast for the evolution in passenger numbers gives good reason to be optimistic,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director-General.
The February update to the long-term forecast includes the following highlights:
- In 2021, overall traveller numbers were 47% of 2019 levels. This is expected to improve to 83% in 2022, 94% in 2023, 103% in 2024 and 111% in 2025.
- In 2021, international traveller numbers were 27% of 2019 levels. This is expected to improve to 69% in 2022, 82% in 2023, 92% in 2024 and 101% in 2025.
- This is a slightly more optimistic near-term international recovery scenario than November 2021, based on the progressive relaxation or elimination of travel restrictions in many markets. This has seen improvements in the major North Atlantic and intra-European markets, strengthening the baseline for recovery. Asia-Pacific is expected to continue to lag the recovery with the region’s largest market, China, not showing any signs of relaxing its severe border measures in the near future.
- In 2021, domestic traveller numbers were 61% of 2019 levels. This is expected to improve to 93% in 2022, 103% in 2023, 111% in 2024 and 118% in 2025.
- The outlook for the evolution of domestic traveller numbers is slightly more pessimistic than in November. While the US and Russian domestic markets have recovered, the same is not true for the other major domestic markets of China, Canada, Japan, and Australia.
“The biggest and most immediate drivers of passenger numbers are the restrictions that governments place on travel. Fortunately, more governments have understood that travel restrictions have little to no long-term impact on the spread of a virus. And the economic and social hardship caused for minimal benefit is no longer acceptable in a growing number of markets. As a result, the progressive removal of restrictions is giving a much-needed boost to the prospects for travel,” said Walsh.
IATA reiterates its appeal to countries around the world to remove all travel barriers (including quarantine and testing) for those who have been fully vaccinated with a WHO-approved vaccine, as well as pre-departure antigen testing to allow non-vaccinated travellers to fly quarantine-free. Removing all travel restrictions and accelerating the lifting of travel restrictions in recognition that travellers pose no greater danger of COVID-19 transmission than the general population already does.
“In general, we are moving in the right direction, but there are some concerns. Asia-Pacific is the laggard of the recovery. While Australia and New Zealand have announced measures to reconnect with the world, China is showing no signs of relaxing its zero-COVID strategy. The resulting localised lock-downs in its domestic market are depressing global passenger numbers even as other major markets like the US are largely back to normal,” said Walsh.
Travel to, from, and within Asia Pacific will only reach 68% of 2019 levels in 2022, the worst result among major areas due to the gradual elimination of international travel restrictions and the risk of recurrent domestic restrictions during COVID outbreaks. Due to a delayed recovery in international traffic in the region, 2019 levels should be recovered by 2025 (109 %).
Passenger preferences for short-haul travel are likely to increase in the coming few years as confidence returns to the market. This will be made easier by the EU’s efforts to standardise and remove restrictions on travel. In 2022, the total number of passengers travelling to, from, and within Europe is expected to reach 86% of its present value before fully recovering in 2024. (105%).
As the US domestic market returns to pre-crisis trends and international travel continues to strengthen, traffic to, from, and within North America will continue to perform strongly in 2022 after a resilient 2021. Passenger traffic will be 94% of what it was in 2019, and complete recovery (102%) is predicted in 2023, much ahead of other regions.
Vaccination development is sluggish, and the crisis is affecting Africa’s growing economies; thus, passenger traffic is expected to be lower in the foreseeable future. Travel to, from, and within Africa will return to pre-crisis levels only in 2025, while passenger numbers are expected to recover at a slower rate than in other regions (101%).
Middle East hubs are expected to have a slower recovery because they rely on long-haul connectivity, which has limited short-haul markets. Passenger traffic to, from, and within the Middle East is predicted to increase by 81% in 2022, 98% in 2024, and 105% in 2025 compared to 2019 levels.
With few travel restrictions and dynamic passenger flows within and to North America, traffic to/from/within Latin America has held steady during the pandemic and is expected to be high in 2022. Central America (up 102%), South America (up 103%), and the Caribbean (up 105%) are expected to surpass 2019 passenger numbers in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively (101%).
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not been factored into the projection. This conflict is unlikely to have a long-term impact on the growth of air transportation in general. Aviation’s near-term repercussions are difficult to predict, but it is evident that there are downside risks, particularly in markets with direct exposure to the conflict.
Energy price fluctuations or flight rerouting to avoid Russian airspace might have a significant impact on airline expenses and other aspects of air travel. Consumer confidence and economic activity are likely to be adversely affected even outside Eastern Europe.
Source: IATA
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